Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Winnable Ridings Dwindling for BC Liberals: Keep Up the Good Work, Christy

Alex T. is on a hilarious roll with this one. Just about died laughing about Susan Anton. I don't understand why she thinks she still has a career in politics. How sad is it that she is considered a "star candidate" for the BC Liberals. Why else would Premier Clark show up for her announcement & the photo ops? 

For those who don't know Anton, she was a former Vancouver city councilor turned mayoral candidate who had the rest of her NPA hopefuls team campaigning and going on TV without her. It was all very odd. Result = NPA wiped off the municipal map in the last election. It all just reeked of NOT A TEAM PLAYER! And/or, her own team didn't like her enough to campaign together, you know, like people who are all running for the same party. 

Sign of the Times? BC Liberal Dip Below 15 Seat Mark!

Alex Tsakumis, April 1, 2013. 

... It’s getting even worse for the BC Liberals. No wonder they’re tossing Christy from their logo. Their internal polling is showing a dead-on correlation between her plummeting ratings and the fall of previously “close” or winnable ridings.

Here are some internal points of concern–just in the Vancouvers, oh, and one surprise…from the Bible Belt!

1) Point Grey: The BC Liberals can forget this one–I’d argue they already have. David Eby is the next MLA from Vancouver Point-Grey. She hasn’t put together enough signatures, STILL (!!!), for candidate papers to be completed, has almost no one who carried Gordon across the goal line (in fact many have defected to Andrew Wilkinson in Quilchena) and can’t raise more than a few thousand dollars from previous campaign donors, who slam the phone down on those making her asks.

The kicker? She’s polling TWELVE points behind Eby. And dropping…

2) Vancouver – False Creek: Sam Sullivan is trailing Mark Toner by nine points. So much for the former mayors philosophical salons and local cache. In the youngest riding in the province–and the one with most condos, the NDP are running a superb candidate: Toner is young, fresh, energetic, well-spoken and affable. If this is the new NDP, it’ll balance off the paleolithic union-speak that will surely come at some point.

3) Vancouver – Fairview:  If Dr. Margaret McDiarmid hasn’t lost her shingle in the shuffle of doublespeak she’s foolishly committed to while a bumbling Minister in this government, then she should dust it off–she’ll need it after May. George Heyman is too far ahead to catch in a riding that should be much closer.

4) North Vancouver – Lonsdale: Also an NDP pick. Naomi Yamamoto is trailing in the polls, badly enough that the Mark Marissen/Bruce Clark/Mike McDonald brain trust is stumped as to what to do. The NDP candidate, Craig Keating, is running against type, and, is even hailed after twelve years on city council, as a “fiscal conservative.” Incredible!

5) Vancouver Quilchena: For the first time ever, the BC Liberals are ONLY ten points ahead of the NDP in the most secure riding in the province. Andrew Wilkinson will still win. The question will be by how much. It could show just how badly Christy Clark has killed the BC Liberal brand.

6) Vancouver Fraserview: You really have to hand it to Suzanne Anton’s people. At her announcement, who was front and center? Why, none other than Christy Clark herself. I guess they thought that would help. Bzzzzz! Wanna try for double jeopardy? The second she parachuted into the riding, they went from five points behind, to eleven. Polls before and after tell the story. Well done. Always a good move to have the worst premier in BC history announce the candidacy of a wax figurine with a voice that has feral cats covering their ears. Only to wonder why the sudden drop in the polls…

7) Vancouver Langara: This is devastating. Moira Stilwell may lose this seat. She’s polling six points behind. In riding-by-riding/poll-by-poll comparisons from last election, this is beyond devastating. Langara should be a sure win for a woman so over-qualified to be in public life. Then again, she’s still covering for Pat Bell and Shirley Bond–who tried to bully her into getting the Wood Center moving a little too quickly, when she was Minister responsible. Ye reaps what ye sows. Betcha if she came out swinging and ran as an independent she’d win. Oh well, too late.

Okay, here’s the bonus…

Rich Coleman hasn’t filed yet in Langley. As of last week he was still collecting signatures. His campaign launch is set for this Saturday April 6th. People are calling his office asking for signs and are being stalled. And yesterday I get this nugget from someone close to Coleman: “I’m not really sure they’ve ordered signs, Alex. He was actually thinking about not running a few weeks back. It’s pretty depressing around here. He backed Christy to the hilt and I think he really regrets it, particularly since she keeps screwing up. I don’t know what to tell you at this point other than, you were right: She’s killed us. If we had any chance before, she’s completely ruined our chances now. Everything she says is a joke; everything she touches goes to hell. She’s made Gord look good. I know her people will blame Gord after this is over, but, again, you were right, she killed this thing off on her own. All these scandals are the federal Liberal way of doing things. Mark (Marissen) has his hand in everything. So does her brother (Bruce). We don’t stand a chance, unless there’s a picture of you and Adrian Dix slow dancing. And even then, I think with your popularity, it might gain him seats.”

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