Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Predictions & Prognostications: May 14th is Finally Here!

Getting down to the wire, below are some of the predictions rolling in. I might as well get my predictions in too. 
  • NDP win a Majority
  • BC Liberals have Modest Returns
  • An Independent, or more
I would like to see some Independents elected, more than just one, if possible. Vicki Huntington and Bob Simpson getting in again would be a good thing for democracy in BC. Electoral politics really need to change in this province. We've got to grow up and look at other options beyond first past the post. I definitely lean toward more diverse representation than what our current electoral landscape looks like. 

As difficult as it is for me to believe this, after everything they've done, there are still a few BC Liberal strongholds that will secure them some seats. We'll have to see which ones as there are some real races in here. A few ridings that spring to mind to keep an eye on:

Abbotsford South - Will it be Darryl Plecas, or John van Dongen, whose rabid pit bull schtick once he was out of the BC Liberal stranglehold has been a joy to behold.

Cariboo North - Will Bob Simpson get in as an Independent (hope so!)?

Comox Valley - Will environmental concerns over coal get people voting NDP over Liberal?

Delta South - Go Vicki Huntington go! We need more (effective) Independents to add to the electoral flavour in BC.

Kamloops-North & South Thompson - Bellwether ridings. Could go either NDP, or Liberal. All I know is BC is a better place now that flaming @$$hole Kevin Krueger is no longer "representing" Kamloops-South. People in that riding should be happy too, he made a fool of you and I hope you remember when you're at the ballot box that your MLA represents YOU around the province. 

Langley - I would like to see John Cummins, leader of the BC Conservatives win and kick Mary Polak back to whatever wafflehut she used to work at. Problem is I don't really think that will happen. Cummins and his party have not shone in this election and frankly, it's hard to take him, or the party seriously at this point. 

Surrey-Fleetwood Longtime BC NDP Jagrup Brar MLA is facing off against Peter Fassbender, Mayor of the city of Langley,who is running for the BC Liberal banner in a riding he doesn't reside in.

Vancouver-Fairview - Photogenic former BCGEU president, George Heyman, should be able to to deliver a win. He will have some of the best campaigners behind him so getting out the NDP vote should be easily accomplished. 

Vancouver-False Creek - I beg of you people of False Creek, do not inflict the rest of the province with  Sam Sullivan, the former Vancouver mayor. Besides, you can't get better than Matt Toner, who is the kind of 21st century digital dude and businessman that we need in Victoria.

Vancouver-Fraserview - All I can say is so happy Kash Heed is gone. Although now he will likely insufferably find a voice in the media on policing issues. Maybe without some last minute dirty tricks political smear tactics Gabriel Yiu will win the riding on good old fashioned campaigning.

Vancouver-Langara - Popular George Chow, former city councilor and strong Chinese community leader is taking on Moira Stilwell, a BC Liberal MLA who has been languishing away from the lime light because she is probably a real threat to Clark's puerile leadership. 

Vancouver-Point Grey: Will David Eby kick Premier Christy Clark to the curb. If there is a merciful and just God he will (just kidding). But here's hoping the most excellent Mr. Eby wins! He is EXACTLY the kind of new/fresh (and smart) blood the people of BC need in Victoria. 

Vernon-Monashee - With a vote split in the riding, Mark Olson of the NDP might swing the vote his way. 

Victoria-Beacon Hill - Carole James has been a solid NDP MLA and there is no reason she shouldn't win this riding. However this is one to watch because it will be interesting to see how many votes Jane Sterk, leader of the Green Party gets. It is also interesting to note the last minute ads for the Green Party in this riding.

Tyee's BC Election 2013 Updated Riding Forecasts

We say NDP 57, Liberals 27, one indie. Bet against us?
By  Tyee Staff and Contributors, Today, TheTyee.ca        

Final polls released in the lead-up to the provincial election still have the NDP in lead, albeit a narrower lead than a month ago. Now, the NDP is expected to take about 43 per cent of the vote, and the Liberals about 37.

That makes updating The Tyee's riding forecast more difficult -- especially for the 10 ridings we deemed too close to call when we made our predictions back on April 22.

But we're going to bite the bullet and make those calls anyway, armed with the latest polling data as crunched by Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, the insightful blog ThreeHundredEight.com, and analysis from The Tyee's own in-depth coverage over the past weeks.

Our totals now add up to 57 seats for the NDP, 27 seats for the BC Liberals, and one seat for an independent. See how our forecasts break down by riding here.

B.C. NDP stays ahead as Liberals’ base erodes
Daniel Bitonti, May. 13 2013, The Globe and Mail.

The B.C. NDP holds a nine-point lead over the B.C. Liberals as voters head to the polls, according to a new Angus Reid survey conducted exclusively for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

The online poll surveyed 800 voters over the weekend, with the results released on Monday.

“I think what it shows more than anything is that there were a lot of people who made up their minds on how they were going to vote before this [the campaign] ultimately began,” said Mario Canseco, the vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion, noting that the difference between the two parties was the same as it was in a poll released last Friday.

Of the voters surveyed, 45 per cent said they intend to vote for an NDP candidate, while 36 per cent said they will vote for a Liberal. Nine per cent said they would vote for the Green Party candidate, while seven per cent said they would vote Conservative.

The first Angus Reid poll of the campaign had the Liberals trailing the NDP by 17 per cent. In early May, the Liberals narrowed it to within seven percentage points, only to see the NDP push their lead up again.

Mr. Canseco said the Liberals’ inability to retain voters who supported them in the last election has been the biggest factor plaguing the party. The latest poll shows that only 67 per cent of people who voted Liberal in 2009 plan to do so on Tuesday. The same poll shows that the NDP has retained 83 per cent of its voters.

“A third of their base is gone,” Mr. Canseco said of the Liberals. “This [weekend] was the chance they had to reconnect with the base. If there was an opportunity to connect, this was the moment to do so. … But there was probably too much baggage to deal with.”         

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